Session 2
Priority Setting
The purpose of this session is to focus on priority setting, explaining what it is and why it is important.

Further Learning
Attractors in Complex Systems: A Detailed Exploration
In complex systems, attractors are fundamental to understanding the emergence of patterns and behaviours. These systems, whether natural, social, or organisational, are not governed by centralised control but evolve through interactions among their components. Attractors provide a way to comprehend how such systems organise themselves into recognisable patterns, often in response to various internal and external forces.
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Defining Attractors
An attractor can be understood as a set of states toward which a system naturally gravitates over time. These states are stable configurations that the system will cycle through or settle into unless disturbed by significant external forces. To visualise attractors, one can use the concept of a state space or phase space, a mathematical representation where every possible state of a system is mapped as a unique point. In reality, systems do not traverse all potential states in the phase space. Instead, they remain confined to a limited subset, which represents their typical behaviour (this subset is the attractor).
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Attractors and Stability
Attractors are closely associated with equilibrium, as they represent the stable states of a system. They can be thought of as the "path of least resistance" for a system, maintained by the counterbalancing forces within it (Burman & Aphane, 2016). For instance, an animal remains within its familiar territory because of the environmental forces that make venturing too far unsustainable, such as the need for food and safety. Similarly, a social institution functions as an attractor by providing pre-existing solutions to societal challenges. These institutions guide individual and group behaviours toward established norms, creating a form of stability within the social system.
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Types of Attractors
Attractors manifest in various forms, each reflecting different dynamics within a system. Point attractors, for example, represent systems with high equilibrium, where behaviour converges to a single stable point. Periodic attractors, on the other hand, describe systems that cycle through a predictable sequence of states. Strange attractors are more complex and chaotic, exhibiting patterns that are stable yet unpredictable. They often emerge in dynamic, nonlinear systems, where behaviours repeatedly converge within a bounded range but do so in irregular and fractal-like ways (Burman & Aphane, 2016).
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Attractors in Social Systems
Social systems often display clustering patterns that emerge without central direction. These patterns—such as the distribution of ethnic groups in multicultural cities, regional variations in political opinions, or the persistence of traditional dialects—are examples of attractors in action. They reflect how individuals or groups synchronise their behaviours in response to environmental and systemic forces.
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For example, in the HIV landscape of South Africa, strange attractors can be observed in the behaviours of individuals managing their condition. Patterns of antiretroviral (ARV) adherence and the mixing of traditional and biomedical treatments create identifiable trajectories in the epidemiological landscape. While each individual’s behaviour might seem unpredictable, collectively, they form a bounded set of behaviours influenced by cultural, social, and systemic factors. These attractors not only reveal the underlying dynamics of the system but also highlight challenges in achieving public health goals, such as South Africa’s Vision 90-90-90 for ending AIDS (Burman & Aphane, 2016).
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Attractors and Self-Organisation
Attractors are integral to the process of self-organisation in complex systems. They emerge as systems respond to internal dynamics and external influences, stabilising behaviours without the need for centralised intervention (Nowak, Andersen, & Borkowski, 2015). In social systems, attractors often represent collective solutions to recurring challenges. For instance, institutions like schools, markets, and governments act as attractors, organising individual behaviours into predictable patterns that sustain the broader system (Nowak, Andersen, & Borkowski, 2015).
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However, attractors are not static. They can evolve over time as the systems they belong to adapt to changing conditions. In dynamic networks, such as those observed in public health or socio-economic systems, attractors can shift their characteristics in response to new pressures (Nowak, Andersen, & Borkowski, 2015). This adaptability ensures that the system remains resilient, but it also introduces challenges, as previously stable attractors may become less effective or even counterproductive.
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Bifurcation and Multiple Attractors
Complex systems often exhibit bifurcation, where multiple attractors coexist, allowing the system to shift between different stable states. In the HIV landscape, for instance, bifurcation is evident in the coexistence of compliant patients, who adhere to biomedical treatment protocols, and rogue networks, characterised by erratic adherence and reliance on alternative treatments (Burman & Aphane, 2016). These competing attractors highlight the nonlinear nature of the system, where small changes in individual or collective behaviour can lead to significant shifts in outcomes.
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The interplay between these attractors necessitates interventions that account for the system’s complexity. Linear, one-size-fits-all approaches are insufficient in such contexts. Instead, strategies must embrace the diversity of attractors, recognising that each represents a distinct pathway shaped by cultural, social, and systemic forces.
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Attractors in Decision-Making and Behaviour
Attractors also play a role in individual psychology and decision-making. For example, a person’s self-esteem can act as an attractor for their self-relevant thoughts (Burman & Aphane, 2016). While these thoughts fluctuate over time, they tend to converge around a stable sense of self-worth. Similarly, social processes, such as purchasing decisions, are influenced by attractors that reflect collective patterns of behaviour rather than purely individual preferences (Nowak, Andersen, & Borkowski, 2015). This suggests that probabilities in decision-making are often socially constructed rather than individually calculated.
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In some cases, attractors can become maladaptive. For example, in clinically depressed individuals, depressed mood states can function as attractors, trapping the individual in a cycle of negative thoughts and behaviours (Nowak, Andersen, & Borkowski, 2015). Understanding these dynamics provides insights into how interventions might disrupt harmful attractors and establish more constructive patterns.
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Challenges and Implications
While attractors offer a powerful framework for understanding complex systems, not all processes within a system gravitate toward equilibrium (Nowak, Andersen, & Borkowski, 2015). Certain phenomena, especially those in highly dynamic or unstable systems, resist being confined to predictable attractors. This emphasizes the importance of empirical data and context-specific analysis in identifying attractors and their influence.
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References
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Burman, C. J., & Aphane, M. (2016). Community viral load management: can ‘attractors’ contribute to developing an improved bio-social response to HIV risk-reduction? Nonlinear Dynamics Psychol Life Sci, 20(1), 81-116.
Nowak, A., Andersen, J. V., & Borkowski, W. (2015). Dynamics of Socio-Economic systems: attractors, rationality and meaning.
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