Research Project
Evidence of Learning
Delphi Method
Introduced by Schmidt (1997) in "Managing Delphi surveys using nonparametric
statistical techniques" Chitu Okoli & Suzanne Pawlowski build on this framework by providing a step-by-step guideline on conducting a thorough Delphi Study and its use a research tool that's aligned to grounded theory.
Overview of the Delphi Method
Chitu Okoli (2003) argues that when addressing questions requiring expert judgment, the average of individual responses is often less effective than the collective consensus achieved through group decision-making processes. The Delphi method facilitates this consensus-building, making it a suitable approach for this study.
The Delphi method is a research tool that aims to obtain a reliable consensus of expert opinions on a complex problem. It is a structured communication process that involves multiple rounds of questionnaires and controlled feedback, while maintaining anonymity among participants
This method is particularly appropriate because the topic under investigation has not been extensively explored. It provides an initial framework for understanding the problem, as suggested by Skulmoski (2007), who notes that the Delphi method is well-suited to situations with incomplete knowledge. It is especially effective for improving understanding of complex problems, identifying opportunities, generating solutions, or developing forecasts.
Characteristics of a Typical Delphi Study
● Expert Selection: Identifying and selecting appropriate experts is crucial for a valid Delphi study. Researchers often employ a multi-step process to ensure the inclusion of qualified individuals with diverse perspectives and deep understanding of the topic.
● Iterative Questionnaires: The process typically begins with an open-ended questionnaire, soliciting expert opinions and insights on the research questions. Subsequent questionnaires are designed based on the responses received in the previous rounds, allowing experts to refine their opinions and reach consensus.
● Controlled Feedback: After each round, the researchers analyze and summarize the responses, providing feedback to the experts in the next questionnaire. This feedback often includes statistical summaries, such as mean rankings, and qualitative information, like explanations provided by other experts.
● Anonymity: Participants remain anonymous to each other throughout the process. This encourages independent thinking and reduces the influence of dominant personalities or group pressure.
● Consensus Building: The iterative process of questionnaires and feedback continues until a satisfactory level of consensus is achieved. This may involve several rounds, and researchers may use statistical measures like Kendall's W to assess the level of agreement.
Applications of the Delphi Method in Theory Building
● Identifying variables of interest and generating propositions: The rankings from a Delphi study can aid researchers in selecting relevant variables and formulating propositions.1 For example, a Delphi study could determine the most influential factors for e-commerce adoption in Africa, allowing researchers to focus on variables with the most substantial impact.
● Strengthening theory grounding and generalizability: Since the Delphi method gathers information from experts with diverse backgrounds, it helps extend empirical observations, bolstering the foundation of the theory and enhancing its applicability across various settings.
● Understanding causal relationships: By asking experts to explain their reasoning, researchers can gain valuable insights into the causal connections between factors, which is essential for theory building. While this is an optional feature, it can significantly improve understanding of the relationships between different elements.
● Contributing to construct validity: Delphi studies can ask participants to validate their responses, ensuring that researchers and participants have a shared understanding of the constructs. Additionally, aligning construct definitions with those commonly used by practitioners enhances consistency in future studies and facilitates practitioner comprehension of the resulting theory. For example, a Delphi study by Holsapple and Joshi helped establish a common language for discussing knowledge management.
Key Characteristics & Steps involved in a typical Delphi Study
Expert Selection: Identifying and selecting appropriate experts is crucial for a valid Delphi study. Researchers often employ a multi-step process to ensure the inclusion of qualified individuals with diverse perspectives and deep understanding of the topic.
Iterative Questionnaires: The process typically begins with an open-ended questionnaire, soliciting expert opinions and insights on the research questions. Subsequent questionnaires are designed based on the responses received in the previous rounds, allowing experts to refine their opinions and reach consensus.
Controlled Feedback: After each round, the researchers analyze and summarize the responses, providing feedback to the experts in the next questionnaire. This feedback often includes statistical summaries, such as mean rankings, and qualitative information, like explanations provided by other experts.
Anonymity: Participants remain anonymous to each other throughout the process. This encourages independent thinking and reduces the influence of dominant personalities or group pressure.
Consensus Building: The iterative process of questionnaires and feedback continues until a satisfactory level of consensus is achieved. This may involve several rounds, and researchers may use statistical measures like Kendall's W to assess the level of agreement.
Selection of Participants:
Successful Delphi panels often consist of a mix of three types of participants (Linstone, 2002):
Stakeholders: Individuals directly affected by the issue under investigation.
Experts: Those with specialized knowledge or relevant experience in the field.
Facilitators: Participants skilled in clarifying, organizing, and synthesizing information to stimulate discussion and consensus.
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